Method

Picks come from our proprietary algorithm, which prices every game against the sharpest public prices, then publishes only what clears a required edge. Nothing is hand-made and nothing is edited after publication.

1. The sharp price is the anchor

Every market is first de-vigged from the sharp book's price (power method for two-way markets, Shin for three-way) to get a fair probability. The closing line at a sharp book is the best public forecast of a game; the algorithm treats it that way.

2. A model is the second opinion

Each sport has a transparent statistical model. Model and market probabilities are blended on the logit scale with the market weighted 75 to 93% by sport on main lines, 75 to 85% on derivatives and 65% on player props (70% for soccer props). Disagreements above 10 points are shrunk, because they usually mean stale information rather than an edge.

3. Price makes the pick

A pick exists only if the best available price across Pinnacle, Bovada and Polymarket (checked after its fee and for at least USD 25 of depth) clears the required expected value: 2.5% on main lines, 3% on derivatives, 4.5% on props, plus 1.2 points per 1.00 of decimal odds above 2.00. Odds are capped at 3.60 (3.00 for props). Every pick carries its worst odds worth taking: the lowest decimal odds at which the required edge still holds. Below that number, pass.

4. Stakes are fractional Kelly

Stake = 25% of full Kelly for main lines, 15% for derivatives and 10% for props, from 0.25 to 2.5 units (1u = 1% of bankroll), halved when a goalie is unconfirmed.

5. Closing line value is the early verdict

Sharp prices are captured every 20 minutes until the start; the last capture is the close. CLV = odds taken × fair closing probability − 1. Results need thousands of picks to separate skill from luck; CLV needs dozens, and it is reported for every pick.

6. Review, grading, record

Drafts are reviewed for news (injuries, goalies, probable pitchers) and dropped when the news kills the premise. Grading is automatic from official results. The record shows every published pick, both tiers, with its publication time, start time, price, close, CLV and result.

7. Tiers and schedule

The algorithm runs early and mid-morning US Central time. The day's board is published once, at 9:00 AM Central (Mexico City time), after the last scheduled run: every pick of the day is ranked by expected value; ranks 1 to 10 are premium, hidden until the game starts; ranks 11 to 15 are free; rank 16 and below is not published here, and neither is any pick that appears after the board is out. A tier never changes once written.

8. The numbers on the front page

Every headline figure is computed from the settled picks in the record each time the page loads: the all-time record, ROI on our stake sizes, closing line value, the best sport by units (at least 10 settled picks) and the last seven days with settled picks. The same numbers, with their confidence intervals, are on the record page.